Foreign Affairs Magazine

Under the leadership of Milorad Dodik, a collection of Serbian-controlled territories known as Republika Srpska is trying to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, writes Ismet Fatih Cancar. Dodik’s actions are a pivotal test for European leaders—and they must respond quickly. https://fam.ag/4jnDEo7

The growing rift between the United States and Europe on technology could “mark the end of the dream of a global Internet, in which everyone shares the same services,” write Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman. https://fam.ag/4iTd9qO

“By emphasizing short wars, strategists rely too much on initial battle plans that may not play out in practice—with bitter consequences,” writes Lawrence Freedman. “Moreover, failure to prepare for long wars creates vulnerabilities of its own.” https://fam.ag/4j45czf

“Coercion will ultimately weaken the United States, not strengthen it,” writes Lynn Kuok. “Without its allies and partners, U.S. leadership in Asia, and around the world, will erode. This will not make America great again—it will leave it weaker abroad and poorer at home.” https://fam.ag/44nrbMW

The Trump administration’s proposal for the mass relocation of Palestinians from Gaza risks destabilizing and alienating Jordan—a valuable U.S. ally in the Middle East, writes Curtis Ryan. But it is not too late for Washington to change tack.

If Washington continues to pursue closer relations with Moscow, U.S. allies in Europe and Asia “might stop buying U.S. weapons, cease sharing intelligence, and reduce their trade with and investment in the United States,” warn Michael McFaul and Evan Medeiros. https://fam.ag/3FTXglv

“The current Israeli government and its far-right supporters among Jewish Israelis have a clear intention: to subject Palestinian citizens of Israel, to the extent possible, to a version of the apartheid-style oppression that Palestinians face in the West Bank and Gaza.” https://fam.ag/4cwQEG4

As the conflict in Ukraine extends into its fourth year, the “war over war guilt rages on as well, with real-world consequences,” writes M. E. Sarotte. “If Trump views Ukraine as the aggressor and Russia as the victim, he may concede a great deal to Moscow.” https://fam.ag/3G11isi

“The analysts who oppose a decoupling from China typically stress that doing so will impose massive, long-term economic disruptions on the United States. They are wrong. But it does not follow that decoupling now would be right.”

In a 2020 essay, J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock argued that effective policymaking relies on smart estimates of future events—and considered the best methods for envisioning possible outcomes in both the short and long term: