Foreign Affairs Magazine

On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Brian Winter discusses Latin America in the age of Trump—and whether the long tradition of strongman leadership has now come to the United States. Start listening here: https://fam.ag/4j8b0I7

With China facing demographic challenges and economic stagnation, many have come to believe that a seemingly weakened Beijing will not overtake Washington, after all—but this sense of triumphalism is misguided, write Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. https://fam.ag/4cughXN

Stephen Brooks and Ben Vagle discuss the perils of decoupling from China preemptively—and urge Washington to “keep its economic powder dry until a moment of true crisis”:

If Trump’s policies end up dethroning the dollar, the result will be “higher costs, more complicated trade, and reduced living standards—at least until another currency comes along to replace it,” write Edward Fishman, Gautam Jain, and Richard Nephew. https://fam.ag/3E1wE1r

The Real China Trump Card

By imposing tariffs of more than 100 percent on U.S. imports from China, the Trump administration is “inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent,” argues Adam Posen. “Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.” https://fam.ag/4j53YE3

Beijing’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order—and the United States and others have adopted key elements of the Chinese approach, argues Michael Froman.

“Without short-term economic assistance—particularly through the easing of the sanctions that outside powers placed on the Assad regime—the situation in Syria will likely worsen, making it harder for the new government to build both a functioning bureaucracy and security apparatus.” https://fam.ag/44pZ7sn

For the upcoming talks between American and Iranian officials to bear diplomatic fruit, the Trump administration must avoid making maximalist demands—and focus instead on linking U.S. pressure to realistic goals, argues Comfort Ero. https://fam.ag/4lo2eY1

To prepare for a potential crisis triggered by Chinese aggression, the United States needs an economic contingency plan that focuses on U.S. and allied interests—and that works with market forces rather than against them, write Eyck Freymann and Hugo Bromley.