Foreign Affairs Magazine

In a 2020 essay, J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock argued that effective policymaking relies on smart estimates of future events—and considered the best methods for envisioning possible outcomes in both the short and long term:

To address Syria’s grave challenges, the new government in Damascus will need short-term economic assistance from foreign countries—including the United States, writes Jerome Drevon. https://fam.ag/44pZ7sn

“If Trump really wants to ink an agreement, he must—like Iran—be prepared to be accommodating at least to some degree. Otherwise, talks may fall apart, forcing a regional war that no one wants—and that is almost certainly contrary to U.S. interests.” https://fam.ag/4lo2eY1

A rearmed Germany will be more capable of underwriting Ukraine’s sovereignty—and less reliant on the U.S. security umbrella, write Michael Kimmage and Sudha David-Wilp. “This new Berlin will be able to support Kyiv without having to walk behind Washington.” https://fam.ag/4ctiv9K

On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Brian Winter discusses Latin America in the age of Trump—and whether the long tradition of strongman leadership has now come to the United States. Start listening here: https://fam.ag/4j8b0I7

With China facing demographic challenges and economic stagnation, many have come to believe that a seemingly weakened Beijing will not overtake Washington, after all—but this sense of triumphalism is misguided, write Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. https://fam.ag/4cughXN

Stephen Brooks and Ben Vagle discuss the perils of decoupling from China preemptively—and urge Washington to “keep its economic powder dry until a moment of true crisis”:

If Trump’s policies end up dethroning the dollar, the result will be “higher costs, more complicated trade, and reduced living standards—at least until another currency comes along to replace it,” write Edward Fishman, Gautam Jain, and Richard Nephew. https://fam.ag/3E1wE1r

The Real China Trump Card

By imposing tariffs of more than 100 percent on U.S. imports from China, the Trump administration is “inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent,” argues Adam Posen. “Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.” https://fam.ag/4j53YE3